Monday, November 3, 2008

Is The Bradley Effect History?

With one day to go before the presidential election is decided, the New York Daily News reports on the potential impact of the Bradley Effect, hearkening back to 1982 when former Los Angeles Mayor, Tom Bradley, an African American lost to his white counterpart George Deukmejian in the California governor's race after leading narrowly in the polls.

Barack Obama's average polling margin is about 7 points right now. Even if we assume a 3-4 point swing for people who change their mind, Obama should have enough of a cushion to close the deal. Most Sunday pundits are predicting an Obama runaway with him securing upwards of 350 electoral votes. 270 electoral votes will be just fine for me.

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